Machine Guns: How NFA Machine Gun Prices Have Increased Since 1986
40 Years of Appreciation: The Transferable Machine Gun Market Since 1986
What happens when you take a collectible that can never be manufactured and added to the civilian transferable registry again, combine it with growing demand, and give it 40 years to appreciate?
You get one of the most unique and best collectible markets in the firearms industry: the fully transferable NFA machine gun market.
Since May 19, 1986, the market for transferable machine guns has undergone a remarkable transformation. What were once relatively affordable firearms purchased by everyday people in Gun shops and Hardware stores have evolved into highly sought-after assets, with many models selling for tens of thousands of dollars and some rare examples reaching six and even SEVEN figure prices.
For collectors who purchased transferable machine guns in the 1980s and 1990s, the appreciation has been substantial. For today's buyers, understanding that history provides valuable perspective on the scarcity, desirability, and market dynamics behind these unique firearms.
The Turning Point: May 19, 1986
The single most significant event in the modern transferable machine gun market was the passage of the Firearm Owners' Protection Act of 1986, which included the Hughes Amendment.
Effective May 19, 1986, federal law generally prohibited civilian possession and transfer of machine guns not lawfully possessed before that date, subject to limited statutory exceptions.
The result was a closed civilian market.
No new machine guns could be added to the transferable registry for ordinary private ownership. The existing inventory became a finite supply that could only be transferred among eligible owners under applicable federal and state law.
This fundamentally changed the economics of machine gun ownership.
Unlike most firearms, where manufacturers can continue producing new examples to meet increasing demand, the civilian transferable machine gun market operates with a fixed and potentially shrinking supply.
The importance of that distinction cannot be overstated.
When demand increases but supply cannot respond with new production, prices face upward pressure.
According to historical accounts published by Small Arms Review, transferable machine gun prices doubled almost overnight following the 1986 cutoff. The initial shock was followed by periods of more modest appreciation, plateaus, and additional surges in demand.
Transferable Machine Gun Values: A Five-Year Historical Timeline
There is no comprehensive public transaction database covering every transferable machine gun from 1986 through 2026. However, historical dealer advertisements, published price guides, interviews, and auction records provide useful checkpoints.
The following timeline uses the closest available documented market references at each five-year milestone. Figures from nearby years are identified rather than presented as exact sales prices for the milestone year.
Year – Historical market reference
1986 – Mid-1980s Colt M16 prices averaged approximately $1,800. Colt 1921 Thompson advertisements started around $3,500 in 1986.
1991 – The market had adjusted following the 1986 cutoff. A 1992 historical dealer-ad review reported new Colt M16A1 prices averaging approximately $2,100.
1996 – The market continued experiencing gradual appreciation, although reliable comparable transaction records are limited.
2001 – The market was increasingly established as a scarce collectible category. Comparable published five-year price data are limited.
2006 – Historical references shortly before this date show a Thompson M1 at approximately $9,000 in 2004 and an HK MP5 around $12,000 in 2003.
2011 – Published market data placed Colt M16 values around $12,000 in 2010, illustrating the substantial appreciation from the mid-1980s.
2016 – The market entered a period of significant growth. A comparable Colt M16A1 auction average reached $26,883 in 2017.
2021 – Demand accelerated considerably. Rock Island Auction reported that average Colt M16A1 auction prices exceeded $30,000 by 2022.
2026 – Current dealer price references place factory Colt M16s around $35,000 tothemid-$40,000s, with registered HK sears or trigger packs supporting compatible MP5 platforms listed around $43,000 to $50,000.
Historical figures are published reference points, not a continuous price index. Different models, configurations, conditions, and sales channels are not directly interchangeable.
Real-World Examples: How Much Have Specific Machine Guns Appreciated?
The broader market trend becomes even more interesting when you look at individual models.
Here are several documented examples that illustrate just how dramatically values have changed.
1. Colt M16A1 – From Approximately $1,800 to More Than $30,000
In the mid-1980s, the average Colt M16 was approximately $1,800.
Fast-forward to 2017, and Rock Island Auction Company reported an average Colt M16A1 auction price of $26,883.
By 2022, that average had exceeded $30,000. And in 2025, was averaging $35,000.
That's an increase of at least approximately 2,678% from the $1,800 mid-1980s reference price.
A firearm that once cost less than $2,000 had become a $30,000-plus collectible.
2. Colt Thompson – A Classic That Continues to Command Premium Prices
The Colt Thompson is one of the most recognizable and historically documented American firearms ever manufactured.
Small Arms Review reported that a nice Colt Thompson was worth approximately $4,000 in 1987, compared with mid-five-figure to six-figure values in its 2022 analysis.
In August 2022, Rock Island Auction sold a law-enforcement-shipped Colt Model 1921 Thompson for $94,000.
That particular sale illustrates the premium that historical significance, originality, condition, and provenance can bring.
Not every Thompson commands that price, but exceptional examples like ones that have valuable Historical provenance have demonstrated just how strong the collector market can be.
3. HK MP5 – The Value of Versatility
The HK MP5 market provides another excellent example.
According to historical price data cited by Firearms News, an MP5 converted from an HK94 was worth approximately $12,000 in 2003.
By 2017, the reported value had reached approximately $42,000.
That's an increase of approximately 250%.
Registered HK sears and trigger packs have also experienced substantial appreciation, largely because of their versatility across compatible host firearms.
In a 2019 interview, Midwest Tactical's Frank Goepfert noted that a registered HK sear could be purchased for less than $100 in late 1986, while comparable examples were selling for more than $35,000 at the time of the interview.
4. Thompson M1 – A 200% Increase in Approximately 13 Years
Historical Machine Gun Price Guide data cited by Firearms News showed the Thompson M1 increasing from approximately $9,000 in 2004 to nearly $27,000 in 2017.
That's approximately a 200% increase.
The example demonstrates that appreciation was not limited to Colt-manufactured collectible Thompsons. Other transferable models also experienced significant increases.
Why Have Transferable Machine Gun Values Increased So Dramatically?
Several factors have contributed to the long-term appreciation of transferable NFA machine guns.
1. A Fixed Supply
The 1986 cutoff prevents new machine guns from entering the ordinary civilian transferable registry. As existing examples are lost, destroyed, or otherwise leave circulation, available supply can become even more limited.
2. Growing Collector Interest
More people now than ever have discovered the history, mechanics, and collectibility of NFA firearms. The internet, online marketplaces, social media, and firearms publications have introduced new generations of collectors to the market.
3. Historical Significance
Many transferable machine guns represent important periods in American and world history. Colt Thompsons, WWII-era firearms, military belt-fed weapons, and iconic Cold War firearms carry appeal that extends beyond their mechanical characteristics.
4. Desirability and Rarity
Not all transferable machine guns appreciate at the same rate. Factory-original examples, rare manufacturers, desirable configurations, matching components, and documented provenance can command significant premiums.
5. Limited Alternatives
For collectors who want to legally own a transferable machine gun, there is no newly manufactured civilian equivalent that can simply replace an existing pre-1986 registered example.
This creates a unique marketplace where the available inventory is fundamentally different from the ordinary firearms market.
Are Transferable Machine Guns a Good Investment?
The historical numbers are certainly impressive, but it is important to distinguish historical appreciation from guaranteed future returns.
Transferable machine guns have demonstrated substantial long-term price appreciation, but they are specialized collectibles, not traditional financial investments.
They have several considerations that prospective buyers should understand:
Prices can fluctuate with economic conditions and collector demand.
Some models appreciate considerably faster than others.
Condition, originality, manufacturer, and registration details matter.
Selling can take time, and transaction costs can affect the actual return.
Changes in federal law or the transferable registry could materially affect market values.
There are also expenses associated with ownership, including insurance, storage, maintenance, and applicable transfer requirements.
Still, the historical performance of many transferable machine guns makes this an especially interesting market for collectors who appreciate both historical firearms and the economics of scarcity.
Looking Ahead: What Does the Future Hold for Transferable Machine Gun Values?
Forty years after the 1986 cutoff, the transferable machine gun market is dramatically different from what it was when the Hughes Amendment took effect.
A MAC that once sold for a few hundred dollars, a registered HK sear that could be purchased for less than $100, or a Colt M16 that cost less than $2,000 are now worth many times their original prices.
The market has changed, the buyer demographics have changed, and the values have changed.
What has not changed is the fundamental supply limitation that defines this market.
As long as the existing restrictions remain in place, no additional machine guns can simply be manufactured and registered for ordinary civilian transferability. That distinction will continue to be an important consideration for collectors evaluating the market.
Whether you're interested in a Colt M16, an HK registered sear, a Thompson, a MAC, an UZI, or a rare military collectible, understanding the history behind these values is essential.
Midwest Tactical: Experience in the Transferable Machine Gun Market
At Midwest Tactical, we've spent years (since 2007) buying, selling, transferring, and evaluating transferable machine guns.
We've watched this market evolve firsthand, from the days when many of these firearms could be purchased for a few hundred or a few thousand dollars to today's market, where desirable examples can command tens of thousands of dollars.
We've handled individual firearms, entire collections, estate acquisitions, and some of the rarest examples in the NFA market.
That experience matters.
Whether you're looking to purchase your first transferable machine gun, expand an established collection, or determine what your current collection may be worth, Midwest Tactical can help you understand the market and navigate the process.
History. Scarcity. Collectibility. Experience.
The transferable machine gun market has a story unlike any other segment of the firearms industry.
And after 40 years, that story is still being written.
Midwest Tactical, Inc. – Your Trusted Source for Transferable Machine Guns.
Explore current inventory and opportunities at ATFMachineGun.com, and visit Gunspot.com to discover firearms listed by dealers and collectors across the country.